A Below-Normal Hurricane Forecast Doesn’t Mean Zero Claims Risk

September 29, 2026 / 7 min read

Atlantic hurricane season has entered its most active stretch, and the forecasts still point to a quiet year. In its August update, The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)’s hurricane season outlook reaffirmed its prediction of a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season: two to six hurricanes, with zero to two reaching major hurricane strength. A typical season produces seven hurricanes, three of them major. This below-normal Atlantic hurricane outlook reflects atmospheric and oceanic conditions expected to suppress tropical development throughout the season.

eye of the storm

El Niño is holding activity down

One major factor contributing to the below-normal outlook is the development of El Niño. El Niño is a climate phenomenon that occurs when sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific rise above average and trade winds weaken, influencing weather patterns around the world. In the Atlantic, El Niño typically increases wind shear, which can disrupt tropical storm formation and limit hurricane development.

As of September 28th, below-average Atlantic hurricane activity is bearing out the NOAA’s forecast. To date, only eight named storms have formed, and none strengthened to hurricane status. An average season typically produces ten named storms, including five hurricanes, with two major hurricanes by September 28th.

Quiet seasons still produce costly storms

Although El Niño can suppress tropical cyclone activity, hurricane risk does not disappear. The last El Niño period developed in June 2023 and peaked shortly after hurricane season, between November 2023 and January 2024. Despite the presence of El Niño, Hurricane Idalia formed in late August 2023 and made landfall as a Category 3 hurricane in Florida’s Big Bend region. While Idalia came ashore in a relatively sparsely populated area, its impacts extended inland, with hurricane-force winds reaching portions of Georgia. Insured losses from Hurricane Idalia exceeded $2.5 billion.

The most recent very strong El Niño occurred in 2015. The 2015 Atlantic hurricane season ran below average, and no hurricane made landfall in the United States. However, Hurricane Joaquin did develop and strengthened into a Category 4 hurricane before impacting the Bahamas, then turned northeast toward the North Atlantic and remained well offshore. Tropical moisture associated with Hurricane Joaquin contributed to catastrophic flooding across the Southeast: Parts of South Carolina received 15–20 inches of rainfall, with isolated areas receiving as much as 25 inches. 2015 illustrates that even in years when no hurricane makes landfall in the U.S., indirect impacts from a storm can still lead to insured losses.

It only takes one storm

Storm counts measure activity, not risk. While a below average season means fewer storms and thus fewer opportunities for a storm to make landfall, it doesn’t eliminate the risk of losses. What ultimately drives insured losses is where storms go, how strong they become, and what lies in their path.

“A seasonal forecast should not be mistaken for a risk forecast,” said Cortney Miller, Product Director, Verisk. “Even in years with below-average activity, a hurricane making landfall in a densely populated area can generate billions of dollars in insured losses. Carriers should focus less on the total number of storms and more on storm track, intensity, and exposure concentrations in vulnerable areas.”

While seasonal forecasts can provide valuable context, they are not designed to predict insured losses. Loss outcomes from storms are influenced by numerous factors, such as storm intensity at landfall, population impacted by the storm, construction quality and building vulnerability, and inflation and reconstruction costs. As a result, insurers should view hurricane season forecasts as one input into preparedness planning.

How insurers can prepare for landfall

When a hurricane approaches land, your claims organization needs to quickly work through a series of critical questions:

Which policyholders sit in the path?

How severe will the event be?

Where should adjusters and field resources be deployed?

Which claims take priority?

How do you reach policyholders proactively?

Making these decisions quickly can significantly influence customer satisfaction, claim cycle times, and overall catastrophe response performance. The challenge is that insurers often need answers before claims are reported.

Weather intelligence before and after the storm

As catastrophe response becomes increasingly data driven, carriers are turning to weather intelligence to improve both preparedness and operational response.

Respond^® delivers real-time weather intelligence that anticipates hurricane impacts to your book of business up to five days ahead of landfall, so you can allocate resources before conditions deteriorate.

Respond MAP™ tracks storm progression in real-time, with storm parameters and area-level impact views that support response decisions as the event unfolds.

Benchmark^® weather reports support individual claim investigations with address-level historical weather data, helping you verify conditions at the property against the reported loss.

Looking ahead

The 2026 hurricane season may ultimately finish with a below-average Atlantic storm count. However, lower activity should not be confused with an elimination of risk. Atlantic sea surface temperatures are very warm and near record levels in some locations, such as the Gulf of America, and a short window of favorable conditions is all a storm needs to form, as was seen recently with Tropical Storm Edouard.

One landfalling hurricane can generate a season’s worth of claim volume and disrupt your operations for weeks. Solid preparedness, exposure management, and timely access to weather intelligence put carriers in position to respond effectively no matter how many storms form.

See how Verisk helps insurers prepare for hurricane season with confidence.

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