The Perils Shaping U.S. Insured Losses Aren't the Ones You'd Expect

October 6, 2026 / 4 min read

At the time of publication, the Atlantic hurricane season had produced five tropical storms and no hurricanes—the latest first hurricane on record in the satellite era. For U.S. catastrophe risk, that matters less than you'd think.

When most people think about the peril most closely associated with insured U.S. catastrophe losses, hurricanes take the top spot. And while this severity peril has dominated insured modeled losses for years, the current modeled peril mix suggests otherwise.

thunder storm field

Behind Verisk’s 2026 Global Modeled Catastrophe Losses Report is an insured average annual loss (AAL) of $117 billion for the United States, accounting for roughly two-thirds of the $171 billion global AAL benchmark. More than half of that $117 billion U.S. AAL comes from severe thunderstorms, not hurricanes or tropical cyclones. Understanding which perils actually shape that number can be the difference between programs built based on the last headline event and those built for the losses that occur every year.

What’s driving the U.S. number?

Six straight years of $100 billion-plus global insured losses have shifted the baseline, and the U.S. is the biggest driver. What matters for U.S. carriers is where those losses come from: concentrated property values in hail alleys and in the wildland-urban interface (WUI), in addition to the historically exposed coastal counties, rising reconstruction costs, and continued building in harm’s way. Each of these factors contributes to the increasing losses from frequency perils, the events that don’t grab the headlines.

Severe thunderstorm, not hurricane, leads the U.S. peril mix

The split is not close: severe thunderstorms, including hail and straight-line winds, drive more than half of the modeled losses in the U.S., with tropical cyclone losses and wildfire rounding out the top 3, as seen in the figure below.

weather-chart

The underwriting angle: More than half of U.S. modeled loss sits on the roof. Roof age, roof condition, and hail exposure are often the variables that decide whether a policy is priced to its real risk, and they’re knowable at bind, one property at a time.

See what the roof is telling you → Get the 2025 U.S. Roofing Realities Report

No hurricanes, still more than $100 billion in insured losses

2025 saw no landfalling hurricanes in the continental United States, yet global insured losses still exceeded $100 billion. Wildfires and severe thunderstorms carried the year, which is exactly what the peril mix predicts: the AAL is built on the losses that show up without a headline event. A hurricane-free season lowers one year’s bill. It doesn’t lower the $117 billion AAL, and PCS industry loss data backs up the severe thunderstorm share of that figure: U.S. severe thunderstorm insured losses averaged more than $40 billion a year from 2021 to 2025, up from roughly $4 billion a year in 1998–2005, as annual PCS-designated claims nearly tripled to 3.5 million.

The claims angle: Severe thunderstorm losses don’t arrive on a seasonal schedule. Hail and straight-line wind generate high claims volumes across multiple states every year. The peril mix behind the $117 billion AAL shows where claims demand and operational strain are likely to concentrate next.

Turn peril mix into claims readiness → Explore the Quarterly Verisk Property Report

Is your program built for hail or for headlines?

Getting the program right starts with knowing your own peril mix, not just the industry’s. The split varies sharply by footprint: a Plains or Midwest writer may see severe thunderstorms well above half of AAL, whereas a Gulf Coast writer may see them well below it. Verisk models draw on the same property-level intelligence that underpins frontline underwriting: building characteristics, roof condition, actual reconstruction costs, and decades of claims experience. The better your property-level exposure data, the sharper the peril-by-peril view Verisk’s U.S. catastrophe model suite can return for your book, whether you write in hail alley, the WUI, or along the Gulf Coast. That view tells you whether your reinsurance program, rate adequacy, and capital are built for the perils that hit your policyholders every year or only for the one that makes the news.

Verisk’s catastrophe models and datasets give every stakeholder in the insurance value chain an unbiased, scientifically credible view of risk. That independent foundation builds resilience for individuals, communities, and businesses in the U.S. and around the world.

For the full global picture, download the 2026 Global Modeled Catastrophe Losses Report and get insights on how the first half actually played out in the industry’s 1H2026 underwriting results.

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