How Open Catastrophe Modeling Can Close the Protection Gap

October 14, 2026 / 3 min read

Originally published by The Insurer during the 2026 Rendez-Vous de Septembre in Monte Carlo.

A single number, presented with confidence, can imply that the problem it measures is solvable by simply moving the underlying variables toward a satisfactory result. But as insurers and reinsurers approach annual renewals, the global total of insured losses expected from catastrophic events is only the beginning of the story for individuals, communities, and businesses subject to these perils.

coworkers working

The harsher reality is that those exposed too often face these risks without the financial resilience insurance can provide. Some choose to go without; others simply can’t find or afford coverage. The market gathers each September to trade risk, but most of the world’s catastrophe loss never reaches the table. While this partly reflects market forces and the choices potential insureds make, closing the catastrophe protection gap also depends on reliably measuring these perils to make them insurable: building robust models, rigorously validating them, and enabling cross-model comparisons.

Greater resilience against catastrophes is elusive without an open, industry-wide ecosystem where risk is exchanged with some common understanding of the perils. But openness itself isn’t resilience; it’s an enabler when market participants can compare views, interrogate assumptions, and apply the science of risk on a sound basis. The industry doesn’t lack effective catastrophe models, but it needs wider and better access to them.

Fulfilling a commitment

The 2026 Global Modeled Catastrophe Losses Report from Verisk includes a new exhibit: the share of insured loss captured by our models alone, and how that share expands once we add non-Verisk models hosted on our Model Exchange platform. Together, the models accessible through Verisk — our own and the third-party models on Model Exchange — captured an average of 97% of insured losses across the ten years from 2016 through 2025. The honest reading is that no single provider, Verisk included, models everything. Openness measurably widens the industry’s view, and that’s worth the commitment we’ve honored for years.

Verisk’s role has been, and remains, that of an independent arbiter providing the same unbiased, scientifically credible risk information to every stakeholder in the insurance value chain. That independence is why we’re willing to build and measure an ecosystem larger than our own models. Verisk Model Exchange, an independent, cloud-native ecosystem built on the Oasis loss modeling framework and leveraging an open and non-proprietary exposure model, now hosts more than 400 models from over 20 independent providers, connectable to existing systems via API. Any model, from any provider, anywhere in the world, can join.

Closing the gap

This is one way Verisk makes a tangible impact against a very real problem — the protection gap. That gap is measured in uninsured homes, uncovered businesses, and communities that rebuild slowly or not at all after disasters. More uninsured losses can be mitigated when every credible view of risk reaches every stakeholder in an insurance market that can price, transfer, and reduce more of the financial toll catastrophes leave in their wake.

Verisk therefore invites every model provider, including competitors: bring your models to Model Exchange. An open ecosystem is only credible if competitors are welcome at the table, and we’re adding more seats. Resilience isn’t a market to be won. It’s a condition to be built together.

Find your place in an open ecosystem.

Explore Verisk Model Exchange

Resilience Rises When Barriers Fall: The Case for an Open Modeling Ecosystem

Fulfilling a commitment

Closing the gap