2026 Global Modeled Catastrophe Losses Report

In 2025, for the first time in a decade, no hurricane made landfall in the continental United States.

Global insured losses from natural catastrophes still exceeded $100 billion—the sixth consecutive year above that threshold—led by the costliest wildfires ever recorded and sustained by severe thunderstorm activity averaging $771 million per event. A year without a severity peril event can still exceed the $100 billion threshold.

A decade ago, such a number, let alone one driven almost entirely by frequency perils, seemed implausible, but now the insurance industry is asking: What does a year like 2025 look like with the addition of a U.S. landfalling hurricane? When should the industry expect a $200 billion insured loss year? How can it prepare to withstand those losses? Catastrophe modeling quantifies the answers to these questions, looking beyond the next event or the next year to consider what’s possible. Measured against a 100,000-year catalog, a single below-average year carries little signal.

A year without a landfalling hurricane can still lull the market into thinner pricing, more relaxed underwriting, and looser terms.

The 2025 losses may have surprised the market, but they did not surprise the models that inform this report: the Eaton and Palisades fires and the significant number of severe thunderstorm events fell within the modeled range. Excluding wildfire, the first half of 2026 tells a similar story to 2025: an accumulation of frequency-peril losses rather than a single headline event. For the communities affected, the losses were anything but modest. But for the industry, a below-average year reflects a favorable draw, not a change in the risk landscape. Down years are when catastrophe models matter most, and when the market turns, they are the difference between resilience and volatility.

Verisk catastrophe models estimate the global modeled insured average annual property loss (AAL) from natural catastrophes at $171 billion: the average annual property loss the industry must be prepared to withstand.

This figure isn’t extrapolated from historical claims. It is derived from Verisk’s suite of global natural catastrophe models covering more than 120 countries and regions, built on a framework that first pushes the bounds of what's physically possible, then refines it toward what’s probable. Since Verisk first published this report in 2012, the estimated AAL has grown from $59 billion* to $171 billion, reflecting expanded model coverage across more than 20 new countries and regions and advances in the science, data, and methods behind our models.

Access the full report for deeper insights.

Frequently asked questions

This FAQ answers common questions about global insured losses from natural catastrophes, average annual loss (AAL), and findings from Verisk's 2026 Global Modeled Catastrophe Losses Report.

What were global insured losses from natural catastrophes in 2025?

Global insured losses from natural catastrophes totaled roughly $107 billion in 2025, according to industry estimates—the sixth consecutive year above $100 billion.

While elevated by historical standards, the 2025 total was still well below Verisk's global modeled insured average annual loss (AAL) of $171 billion, a reminder that a quieter year does not signal declining risk.

What is average annual loss (AAL) in catastrophe modeling?

Average annual loss (AAL) is the expected annual loss from catastrophes, averaged across the tens of thousands of simulated years in a catastrophe model. It is a long-run expectation, not a prediction: most years fall below the AAL, while extreme years far exceed it. Insurers and reinsurers use AAL to price risk, structure reinsurance, and compare portfolios.

For a full primer, see Verisk's Modeling Fundamentals: What Is AAL?

What is the global modeled insured average annual loss (AAL) from natural catastrophes?

According to Verisk's 2026 Global Modeled Catastrophe Losses Report, the global modeled insured average annual loss (AAL) from natural catastrophes is $171 billion. The figure reflects Verisk's latest model updates, including the Verisk Tropical Cyclone model for the U.S., and captures the forces pushing expected losses higher: concentrated property values in hazard-prone areas, rising reconstruction costs, and continued building in harm's way. Severe thunderstorms drive more than half of modeled losses in the U.S., with tropical cyclones a distant second.

How many consecutive years have global insured catastrophe losses exceeded $100 billion?

Global insured losses from natural catastrophes have topped $100 billion for six consecutive years (2020–2025). Elevated losses are no longer the exception, they are becoming the new normal, and the United States is the biggest single driver. With Verisk's global modeled insured AAL now at $171 billion, the industry should plan for $100 billion-plus years to continue.

*2012 dollars, includes crop losses.

When Models Matter Most: Managing Global Catastrophe Risk in a Soft Market

In 2025, for the first time in a decade, no hurricane made landfall in the continental United States.

A year without a landfalling hurricane can still lull the market into thinner pricing, more relaxed underwriting, and looser terms.

Verisk catastrophe models estimate the global modeled insured average annual property loss (AAL) from natural catastrophes at $171 billion: the average annual property loss the industry must be prepared to withstand.

Frequently asked questions