U.S. Tropical Cyclone Risk: Verisk's New Model

October 14, 2026 / 3 min read

Originally published by The Insurer during the 2026 Rendez-Vous de Septembre in Monte Carlo.

The nature of any peril rarely remains static over time, and hurricanes in the Atlantic basin are no exception. A warmer, wetter near-present climate and decades of intensive development in highly exposed coastal regions are among the factors transforming hurricane risk for insurers and reinsurers.

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Meanwhile, our understanding of these storms continually deepens. Data sets grow as meteorological history, observations and claims records expand. And evolving technology creates new capacity to use those data sets in ever more powerful models.

One result of all this is a need to set aside the assumptions embedded in legacy catastrophe models. Against this backdrop, Verisk this year introduced its fully re-engineered U.S. Tropical Cyclone model—the most advanced of its kind and the most significant update ever to the tool that launched the field of catastrophe modeling. It delivers a near-present view of risk grounded in updated science, so insurers, reinsurers and capital markets can price and defend decisions on tropical cyclone exposure.

A comprehensive update

Released in June 2026, the model modernizes near-present climatology, hazard, vulnerability and loss dynamics to capture the drivers behind recent U.S. hurricane seasons. A re-engineered stochastic event catalog also captures tropical storms and cyclones that undergo extratropical transition. The model’s wind-field methodology, published in the peer-reviewed Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, goes beyond traditional approaches built on limited parameters and averages. Adding science on wind shear and sea surface temperatures, it sharpens individual scenarios and improves simulation of wind, storm surge and rainfall-driven inland flooding. Flooding outputs use cutting-edge tools to capture complex coastal areas and precipitation-induced inundation.

A single, near-present climate view reflects both global warming and natural ocean-atmosphere variability in the Atlantic basin, including influences from the El Niño Southern Oscillation cycle. From that single view, it supports flexible climate-sensitivity analysis without switching to a separate climate-conditioned event set, based on a realistic picture of how hurricanes behave today, not decades ago.

The model delivers improved detailed modeling of residential risks, commercial risks and high-value homes. Proprietary Verisk analytics around building code adoption and enforcement, as well as roof-specific data, contribute to a robust and versatile vulnerability framework that cannot be replicated by any other modeler. With a high-resolution industry exposure database with nearly 120 million exposure records, the model provides a robust view of industry losses.

Validated and market-ready

Built and tested against more than $686 billion of industry loss data and multiline, location-level claims, Verisk models deliver a rigorously validated, real-world view of how events affect portfolios. Expanded demand surge metrics account for inflation and labor disruption that vary by state and event for more realistic loss estimates. And it rests on Verisk’s Next Generation Financial Model, at the heart of every Verisk catastrophe model, enabling consistent, decision-grade analysis without reconciliation.

The model is built to withstand scrutiny, backed by extensive external evaluation and academic peer review. This foundation supports results that can be explained to executives, presented to regulators, and defended under external review, long a hallmark of Verisk models.

This much-anticipated model is available exclusively on Verisk Synergy Studio, our all-new, cloud-native modeling platform. As these dual deployments move into workflows across the industry, Verisk’s teams remain committed and prepared to support clients throughout the transition and beyond.

See how Verisk’s new U.S. Tropical Cyclone model delivers a near-present view of risk.

Explore the model

A Turning Point in Measuring Tropical Cyclone Risk: Verisk’s New U.S. Model

A comprehensive update

Validated and market-ready