SRCC in 2026: Five Countries to Watch

April 29, 2026 / 6 min read

Our Global Strikes Riots and Civil Commotion (SRCC) Predictive Scores consistently flag SRCC hotspots before events unfold, at a time when damaging protests are affecting a growing number of countries.

Last year, all regions globally witnessed major protests. And although 2025 was only the second year since 2019 without a billion-dollar-category SRCC event, the conditions for large-scale, damaging events are still in place around the world.

people-protesting-holding-signs-war

Growing fiscal pressure around the world stands out as a key concern for 2026, as tighter public finances could contribute to rising inequality and poverty, both of which are important drivers of risk on our Global SRCC Predictive Scores. Widespread supply chain disruption from conflict in the Middle East is also likely to push up consumer prices, which are another major driver of SRCC risk.

Last year, we focused on countries that had avoided major SRCC events but still displayed a risk of damaging protests. This year, we turn our attention to the countries in each major region that merit the closest scrutiny from SRCC underwriters, considering both the national SRCC hazard and market size.

United States

The US ranks as the fifth highest-risk country in the world, and the highest-risk developed economy globally. Data from our Global SRCC Predictive Scores show that the underlying risk of damaging civil unrest is at a similar level to early 2020, before the outbreak of widespread country-wide unrest, which caused around USD3 billion in insured losses.

The current polarised political environment, characterised by rising protest activity, increases the risk of damaging protests. Our data shows that the US saw the largest increase in average monthly protest sizes in 2025, and protest activity has continued into 2026.

The risk of damaging SRCC events in the US is not confined to a small number of locations. Data from our Verisk SRCC Model for the United States shows that the ten highest-risk cities include a mix of coastal and inland urban centres across the country. Based on modelled average loss for a one-in-hundred-year event, New York stands out, accounting for a quarter of the total, as shown in the chart below.

As Robert Munks, Head of Americas, notes, “Countrywide mass protests events are likely as November’s crucial midterm elections approach. With ever-larger numbers of protestors taking to the streets, as shown by the turnout for the latest No Kings protest on 28 March, the overall SRCC risk will not abate in coming months.”

10 highest-risk US cities include mix of coastal and inland hubs

Verisk SRCC Model for the United States: Contribution to the tail risk (1 in 100-year band events). Source: Verisk SRCC Model for the United States

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France

France ranks as the seventh highest-risk country globally, and the highest-risk country in Europe. The structural issues that gave rise to large-scale protests and industrial action in 2025 remain unresolved and are likely to give rise to civil unrest again in 2026.

The political landscape is still fractured, and further fiscal tightening in 2026 – amid growing EU pressure on France to cut its fiscal deficit – could provide a spark for protests.

French overseas territories also warrant attention. Efforts by the French government to address popular grievances in New Caledonia over electoral rules and voter reform, which gave rise to protests and riots in May 2024, have continued into 2026. However, despite greater devolution of powers from Paris, pro-independence groups are contesting the process.

During the unrest in 2024, protestors in New Caledonia caused extensive damage to factories, retail outlets, and car dealerships, causing around USD1 billion in insured losses, a similar amount to the riots that swept France in June 2023. Several other overseas territories also face a combination of social, environmental, and political factors that could give rise to unrest.

“France’s fractured political climate has already served as a source of unrest this year, with rallies taking place in several cities following the killing of a far-right activist in February,” notes Jess Middleton, Senior Europe Analyst. “The risk of politically motivated unrest and associated SRCC losses will remain high in the year ahead, particularly as the country gears up for the pivotal presidential election in early 2027.”

SRCC risks run highest in French urban centre

Global SRCC Predictive Scores, 2026-Q1. Source: Verisk Maplecroft

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India

India ranks as the 9th highest risk country in the world. Only Bangladesh faces a higher SRCC risk in the wider Asia-Pacific region, but India’s much larger economy means that it is a key country to watch in 2026 for SRCC underwriters.

The wave of protests across several south and southeast Asian countries in 2025 bypassed India, but India shares many of the risk drivers and sparks that gave rise to unrest in the wider region last year, including concerns around corruption and nepotism.

More recently, the drivers of social unrest have broadened considerably. Policies tying citizenship status to religious and ethnic criteria (most acutely felt in West Bengal and other states with large minority populations) have deepened anxieties around legal residency status that communal political mobilisation can rapidly convert into unrest.

High levels of income inequality also stand out as a key structural driver of SRCC in India. Globally, there are only ten countries where income inequality is a bigger driver of SRCC.

As Reema Bhattacharya, Head of Asia, cautions: “Over the next 12 months, SRCC risk in India is more likely to be sustained and recurring than event-driven, as citizenship grievances, economic pressure and perceived state discrimination increasingly reinforce each other. This will make India's SRCC risk profile harder to manage than in economies where protests tend to cluster around specific scandals or political moments. Businesses should plan for intermittent, geographically varied disruption rather than isolated incidents.”

Turkey

Turkey ranks as the 19th highest-risk country in the world on our Global SRCC Predictive Scores, with only Yemen and Iraq currently facing a higher risk of damaging unrest in the Middle East and North Africa region.

The potential for large-scale protests in Turkey persists, with a range of political, environmental and economic factors contributing to the country’s high SRCC risk landscape. Last year, the arrest of popular Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu and other senior officials on politically motivated corruption charges provided the spark for protests.

As Principal Middle East and North Africa Analyst Hamish Kinnear notes, "Turkey’s risk rating reflects the range of live issues that could spark mass and potentially damaging protest action in the country. This ranges from judicial cases against opposition politicians perceived as politically motivated to plainer bread and butter issues like the cost-of-living concerns sparked by persistent inflation.”

Nigeria

Nigeria currently ranks as the tenth highest-risk country in the world on our Global SRCC Predictive Scores. Unlike South Africa and Kenya, it has avoided high-loss events in recent years. But more frequent and intense protests, especially related to rising living costs, serve as a warning.

Socioeconomic factors like unemployment and high living costs will remain major drivers of SRCC risk in Nigeria. Currently, there are only six countries on our Global SRCC Predictive Scores where inflation is a bigger driver of risk than in Nigeria, despite a recent fall in the rate of inflation. High levels of insecurity, violence, and kidnapping risk are additional structural drivers of SRCC risk, as shown in the chart below.

As Mucahid Durmaz, Senior Africa Analyst notes, “As Nigeria approaches the 2027 elections, President Tinubu’s expected bid for a second term, combined with a fragmented opposition and opposition concerns over recent amendments to the Electoral Act, could heighten the risk of protest flare‑ups in the run‑up to the vote.

Cost of living pressure remains a notable risk driver in Nigeria

Global SRCC Predictive Scores, 2026-Q1: Risk drivers and average impact on model output. Source: Verisk Maplecroft

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