Supply Chain

Respond Weather Analytics to Predict Demand


Storm-Driven Demand Surge from Severe Weather

Verisk is changing the way the home repair industry responds to demand surges from severe storms. Our Respond™ weather analytics empower building materials manufacturers, distributors, and contractors to optimize operations at the neighborhood level. We help you rebuild communities and restore the roofs over families’ heads.

Home material demand surge driven by severe storms

Damaging weather, including hail, wind, and hurricanes, drives demand for materials to repair damaged roofs, windows, siding, and more. Manufacturers, distributors, and contractors need to assess where severe storms affect cities, towns, and neighborhoods quickly. You must respond to each demand surge by getting the right materials to the right locations in the shortest amount of time. For example:

  • Hail: Verisk applies hail detection algorithms and our nationwide footprint of homes to our assessments, all conditioned by our unique understanding of how various sizes or types of hail can cause damage. We quantify the damage and resulting storm demand surge down to the local level to facilitate decisive and timely responses.
  • Hurricane: Respond forecasts damage estimates up to five days before landfall. The predictive analytics are updated multiple times a day as the tropical cyclone approaches land.

The images below illustrate some of the detailed information Respond provides to address storm-related surge. Together, our industry alliances improve community resilience to severe weather by fueling faster and more efficient recoveries.

National Demand Snapshot
The radar indications of hail look similar across the East and South but the impact is dramatically different. Storms in Pennsylvania and New Jersey damaged thousands of homes while storms in other areas produced far less damage. Organized response is necessary in a relatively narrow geographic zone between Reading, PA and the Jersey Shore.

Hail map - East Coast
Click map to enlarge  

South Carolina Hail Zones
Within 24 hours of the event, Respond estimated that the storm around Columbia, SC damaged about 8,000 homes. Updates in the weeks following the event incorporate radar data, meteorological review, and a network of insurance-data. New information leads us to believe that the initial estimate was quite good. We estimate between 7,500 - 9,500 homes damaged between Columbia and Sumter, SC.

Hail map - South Carolina
Click map to enlarge  

 Other tools may provide a broad risk score based on the severity of a storm or the population density of an area, but you really have to guess at how that will effect sales. We chose Verisk’s demand forecasting solution because it’s not just another weather map—it's a demand chain tool that translates the effect of weather into a tangible estimate of the resulting demand for shingles via predictive analytics.  

– Randy Bargfrede, Vice President of Logistics & Transportation, GAF