U.S. Tropical Cyclone Risk Model

Grounded in the latest rigorous science, leveraging an unmatched data repository, and enabling deeper analytics, this model is built to power more informed underwriting, portfolio management, and capital allocation decisions.

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Tropical cyclone risk is changing. Portfolio decisions can’t rely on legacy views

As coastal exposures grow, the potentially devastating impacts of a tropical cyclone make risk models increasingly critical to insurers managing catastrophe risk. The current state of the climate and expectations for the near future point toward increased tropical cyclone risk and the potential for escalating damage and losses from more intense storms.

The next evolution in tropical cyclone modelling, only from Verisk

Sharpen your tropical cyclone risk assessment with greater clarity and confidence. This update brings together a unified near-present climate view, more realistic wind and event simulation, and expanded validation—so you can evaluate risk more clearly and make better underwriting, portfolio, and capital decisions.

Near-present climate views

A comprehensive catalog spans a continuum of sea surface temperature and ENSO states, enabling more flexible sensitivity analysis than ever before.

Breakthrough in wind modelling

A groundbreaking, peer-reviewed approach to wind field modeling represents 3-second gusts in more realistic patterns than ever before.

Next-generation storm surge modelling

Newly built on Delft3D with dynamic tides, updated terrain, and probabilistic defense failure, this sub-peril approach delivers more realistic coastal and inland flooding impacts.

Integrated flood modelling for tropical cyclones

All sources of water damage are covered through explicit modelling of inland precipitation in addition to coastal storm surge.

Data-driven validation you can trust

Leveraging more than $350 billion of industry losses and an additional $336 billion of location-level claims across diverse lines of business, this is the industry’s most extensively validated tropical cyclone model.

More realistic damage modelling

Progressive damage, wind duration, roof age, and building codes are incorporated at unprecedented granularity to improve loss estimation across an expanded variety of property types.

Made for today’s tropical cyclone threat

Re-engineered to reflect today’s climate and built environment, Verisk’s U.S. Tropical Cyclone Model combines the latest hazard science, expanded exposure data, and updated demand surge framework to deliver the industry’s most advanced view of U.S. tropical cyclone hazard and vulnerability.

Features and capabilities

The model’s core capabilities are designed to support more confident and defensible pricing, portfolio management, and risk-transfer decisions.

Enhanced storm surge (coastal flood) modelling

Outputs reflect Delft3D hydrodynamic modelling, tides, and a terrain-aware simulation mesh for complex coastal areas—plus a defense failure capability in selected states.

A new way to capture wind intensity

3-second wind gusts and duration of damaging winds are simulated at 10-meter height on a variable-resolution grid. A novel approach better captures asymmetric wind fields.

Upgraded vulnerability for conventional and specialty risks

The model captures progressive damage from wind gusts, expands secondary risk characteristics, and extends coverage to large industrial and renewable energy assets.

Improved precipitation-induced flooding

The model captures river overflow, maximum 24-hour precipitation totals, and levee failure potential while considering antecedent conditions.

Expanded demand surge metrics

The model considers inflation and labor disruptions that vary by state and event, aligning estimates to a consistent, realistic global framework.

Updated industry exposure database

With 90-meter resolution, the model delivers improved commercial detail and expanded high-value home identification.

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About Catastrophe Modeling

In the case of rare but severe events, historical loss information is often unreliable in assessing future loss potential - that's where catastrophe modeling comes in.

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