AIR Worldwide Releases Severe Thunderstorm Model for Europe
BOSTON, Sept. 10, 2018 — Catastrophe risk modeling firm AIR Worldwide today announced that it has released a new state-of-the-art severe thunderstorm model for Europe. The AIR Severe Thunderstorm Model for Europe captures the effects of straight-line winds and hail, enabling companies to assess their risk from the local scale to the macro level on insured properties, including residential, commercial, automobiles, and specialty lines of business—in 22 countries. Together with AIR’s Extratropical Cyclone Model for Europe and European flood models, this new model now allows for a comprehensive assessment of atmospheric risk in this region. AIR Worldwide is a Verisk (Nasdaq:VRSK) business.
“Though typically associated with the summer months, severe thunderstorms can strike Europe at any time of the year, and their loss potential is increasing,” said Dr. Eric Robinson, manager and principal scientist, AIR Worldwide. “A severe thunderstorm event can, over the course of several days, produce multiple outbreaks. Depending upon the region, high-frequency severe thunderstorms can contribute up to 50 percent to overall wind-related insured losses in Europe.”
The scientifically advanced severe thunderstorm model realistically simulates the highly localized effects of individual hail and straight-line winds (microevents)—from a meteorological perspective the key drivers of loss from severe thunderstorms—and the spatial extent of macroevents (combinations of microevents). This is achieved by replicating daily activity based on a comprehensive analysis of historical storm outbreaks. The model reflects emerging scientific and engineering research and leverages data from many sources, including storm report databases, numerical weather prediction, and an unprecedented amount of radar data from recent events. To validate the model, AIR used a large set of claims data, including detailed claims from some of the largest insurers in Europe.
“Because of the localized nature of individual hailstorms and straight-line winds as well as potential for major outbreaks affecting the ever-changing built environment, using historical losses for risk assessment and management is not sufficient,” said Dr. Cagdas Kafali, senior vice president, research and modeling, AIR Worldwide. “The model was built to meet the wide spectrum of severe thunderstorm risk management needs of all stakeholders, including the insurance and reinsurance industry, and accounts for insurance policy conditions specific to each modeled country.”
In addition, AIR announced that it updated its Extratropical Cyclone Model for Europe, including the expansion of the model domain covering a total of 22 countries. The updated model includes support for several new risk types, including large industrial facilities, wind turbines, marine cargo, and builder’s risk. The AIR Extratropical Cyclone Model for Europe also features a new stochastic event set, updated hazard and vulnerability modules, and industry exposure databases.
Dr. Kafali concluded, “Used in concert, the AIR Extratropical Cyclone Model for Europe, the AIR Inland Flood Model for Europe, and the new severe thunderstorm model provide a comprehensive view of atmospheric peril risk for effective risk management. Together, they can help insurers identify opportunities for growth and make more informed underwriting decisions. Reinsurers also benefit from this toolkit, which enables them to better understand and effectively price the risk that they may be assuming on their books.”
The AIR Severe Thunderstorm Model for Europe and the AIR Extratropical Cyclone Model for Europe are currently available in the Touchstone® and CATRADER® catastrophe risk management systems.
About AIR Worldwide
AIR Worldwide (AIR) provides risk modeling solutions that make individuals, businesses, and society more resilient to extreme events. In 1987, AIR Worldwide founded the catastrophe modeling industry and today models the risk from natural catastrophes, terrorism, pandemics, casualty catastrophes, and cyber attacks globally. Insurance, reinsurance, financial, corporate, and government clients rely on AIR’s advanced science, software, and consulting services for catastrophe risk management, insurance-linked securities, site-specific engineering analyses, and agricultural risk management. AIR Worldwide, a Verisk (Nasdaq:VRSK) business, is headquartered in Boston, with additional offices in North America, Europe, and Asia. For more information, please visit www.air-worldwide.com.
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