Verisk Vision 2020


Quantifying COVID-19’s Impact Using Pandemic Risk Models


COVID-19 has caused disruptions in nearly all aspects of our lives: communities, businesses, governments, and insurers have all felt the impact of this event. It will likely drive significant changes for resiliency and risk management throughout society. In this session, we will discuss how pandemic modeling works, and more specifically, explain how complex epidemiological models have aided in forecasting the impact of COVID-19.

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Meet the Presenters

Doug Fullam

Director - Life and Health Solutions
AIR Worldwide

Doug Fullam is the director of life and health solutions in AIR’s consulting and client services group. He is responsible for helping companies develop solutions for managing life and health risks and has led many extreme risk modeling insurance, reinsurance, broker, and capital markets projects. His work has focused on evaluations of insurance structures across many disciplines, most notability life, health, and property and casualty. Doug’s technical background and training includes actuarial mathematics, stochastic processes, insurance and financial modeling, mathematical finance, economics, and various machine learning applications. He is an Associate of the Society of Actuaries.

Narges Dorratoltaj

Principal Scientist and Manager
AIR Worldwide

Dr. Narges Dorratoltaj is a principal scientist and manager in AIR’s research and modeling group and leads the life and health modeling team. Narges has extensive experience in the modeling of infectious diseases from immunological, epidemiological, and economic perspectives through computational epidemiology and biology. Specifically, she worked on immunological modeling of HIV during treatment interruption, the economic impact of an influenza vaccine during pandemics, economic evaluation of disease outbreak, and mathematical modeling of longevity/mortality in different populations. Narges earned both her Master of Public Health and her PhD in biomedical and veterinary sciences from Virginia Tech, and her Master of Science in industrial and systems engineering from the University of Southern California.

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