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The Great Recession and Commercial Auto Claims

How will we know when the United States has fully recovered from the Great Recession of 2008? That’s the question that economists around the world are trying to answer. Some say that slow wage growth is an indication that the economy still has a long way to go. Others see reasons to be optimistic, with 288,000 new jobs added last month and significant growth in consumer spending in March.

In this month’s issue of Rough Notes, I examine the effects of the recession on trends in commercial auto claims. As with consumer economic data, it’s not easy to figure out exactly what’s behind the trends. So please take a look at the article when you get a chance, and let me know what you think. I can be reached at

Kevin Hughes

Kevin Hughes is an Actuary in the Commercial Auto Division at Insurance Services Office (ISO). He began his career at ISO in 2004 and specializes in trend and predictive modeling.

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