Insurers' Third-Quarter Catastrophe Losses Estimated at $2.9 Billion, Up 300 Percent from Third-Quarter 2002, ISO's PCS Unit Say

JERSEY CITY, N.J., Oct. 13, 2003 — Insurers are expected to pay $2.9 billion to homeowners and businesses for insured property losses from seven catastrophic events in the third quarter of this year — up more than 300 percent from the year-ago period — according to current estimates by Insurance Services Office, Inc.'s (ISO) Property Claim Services (PCS) unit. Third-quarter 2002 catastrophe losses totaled $715 million.

The quarter's losses are exceeded only by the $20.7 billion loss in third-quarter 2001, primarily from the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks in New York and Virginia, and $4.06 billion in the third quarter of 1998, when Hurricane Georges caused nearly $2 billion in damages along the Gulf Coast.

Catastrophe losses for the first nine months of 2003 now stand at $9.4 billion, more than double the $4.1 billion for the same period last year.

The seven catastrophic events during the quarter — Hurricanes Claudette and Isabel, four wind and thunderstorm events, and the widespread power outage during mid-August — are about average, based on an annual average frequency of 6.5 events over the past ten years.

Insurers can expect nearly 886,000 personal and commercial property and automobile claims in 30states from this quarter's losses, PCS said.

At $1.17 billion, Hurricane Isabel topped the list for this quarter's insured losses, followed by an estimated $815 million in damages from the severe thunderstorms that struck 14 southern and eastern states in late July. The power outage caused $75 million in property damage, but the estimate could be revised when the exact cause of the blackout is determined.

PCS will resurvey Hurricane Isabel losses in 60 days, which is standard procedure when preliminary loss estimates from a catastrophic event exceed $250 million or special circumstances underlying the event require additional analysis.

Virginia sustained the highest insured losses in the quarter — $460 million, mostly from Hurricane Isabel. Maryland and Tennessee each suffered insured damages of $410 million, followed by Illinois at $230 million and Ohio and Indiana, each with $185 million.

Third-Quarter Catastrophe Losses Since 1994

Year
Frequency
Insured Losses ($)
1994 11 $630 million
1995 7 $1.56 billion
1996 8 $2.22 billion
1997 5 $510 million
1998 8 $4.06 billion
1999 6 $2.58 billion
2000 3 $315 million
2001 4 $20.7 billion*
2002 6 $715 million
2003 7 $2.9 billion
* Largely due to Sept. 11 losses

ISO's PCS unit defines a catastrophe as an event within a particular territory that causes $25 million or more in insured property losses and affects a significant number of property and casualty policyholders and insurers.

PCS estimates represent anticipated insured loss on an industrywide basis arising from catastrophes, reflecting the total net insurance payment for personal and commercial property lines of insurance covering fixed property, personal property, vehicles, boats, related property items and business-interruption losses. The estimates exclude losses insured by the National Flood Insurance Program and all loss-adjustment expenses.

About ISO
ISO is a leading source of information, products and services related to property and liability risk. For a broad spectrum of commercial and personal lines of insurance, ISO provides data, analytical and decision-support products; consulting; data processing; and technical, statistical and actuarial services. ISO field services include on-site rating and underwriting services and the evaluation of community loss-mitigation efforts. ISO's products help customers with sales and prospecting, underwriting, rating and quoting, customer management, policy administration, product development, claims administration and fraud detection. ISO's AIR Worldwide subsidiary provides technologies to assess and manage natural and man-made extreme-event risk. Through its ISO Claims Services, Inc. (iiX unit) and Intellicorp subsidiaries, ISO provides motor vehicle reports and criminal-records information and through its AscendantOne unit delivers rating, quoting and policy-administration solutions. In the United States and around the world, ISO serves insurers, reinsurers, agents, brokers, self-insureds, risk managers, insurance regulators and other government agencies.

Release: Immediate

Contacts:
Giuseppe Barone / Erica Helton
MWW Group (for ISO)
201-507-9500
gbarone@mww.com / ehelton@mww.com