BOSTON, May 21, 2003 — AIR Worldwide Corporation (AIR) today announced the addition of intra-month temperature forecasts to ClimateCast™, AIRWeather's web-based forecast service. The new forecast windows provide guidance from one week to four weeks ahead, which is critical for operational planning and power-trading activities of energy companies. With the launch of the intra-month forecasts, AIRWeather's ClimateCast now provides clients with a continuum of forecasts from one week to six months, supporting both near-term and long-term business decisions.
"Since heat waves and cold snaps happen on a regular basis, energy companies need to be vigilant weather observers, anticipating weather extremes weeks in advance in order to prepare for unexpected temperature shifts. Many companies currently rely on climatology, or historical weather data, to make estimates for the future," said Mark Gibbas, senior research meteorologist at AIRWeather. "Climatology is a good place to start, but AIRWeather's intra-month forecasts have been 20 to 60 percent more accurate on average, making ClimateCast a more reliable tool to prepare for temperature anomalies that strain demand and adversely affect bottom-line results.
AIRWeather's ClimateCast forecasts are probabilistic, utilizing an ensemble forecasting methodology similar in concept to that used by the U.S. National Weather Service and other leading forecast centers in Europe. A state-of-the-art forecasting model is run numerous times, starting from slightly different initialization fields derived from the latest oceanic and atmospheric observations, land characteristics and Arctic ice analysis to generate possible weather outcomes (scenarios). These are used to generate probability distributions of possible scenarios from weeks to seasons ahead. The probability of the forecast is determined by the number of scenarios that point toward a similar forecast. Each ClimateCast forecast clearly states the probabilities, providing energy companies with useful information about the certainty of the forecast.
AIRWeather's collects and analyzes global environmental observations daily, continually updating the forecasts. In addition to the intra-monthly products, ClimateCast provides monthly, three-monthly and seasonal probabilistic forecasts up to six months. These forecasts are updated weekly.
AIRWeather, the weather technology division of AIR Worldwide Corporation (AIR), is a leading provider of high-quality weather data and climate forecasting technology to companies in weather-sensitive industries. Building on AIR's 15 years of catastrophe modeling expertise, AIRWeather's web-based data and forecasting products are the most comprehensive available to help companies improve operational planning and weather risk-management strategies. AIR is headquartered in Boston and has additional offices in North America, Europe and Asia. For more information, please visit the AIR website at www.air-worldwide.com.
ISO is a leading source of information, products and services related to property and liability risk. For a broad spectrum of commercial and personal lines of insurance, ISO provides data, analytical and decision-support products; consulting; data processing; and technical, statistical and actuarial services. ISO field services include on-site rating and underwriting services and the evaluation of community loss-mitigation efforts. ISO's products help customers with sales and prospecting, underwriting, rating and quoting, customer management, policy administration, product development, claims administration and fraud detection. ISO's AIR Worldwide subsidiary provides technologies to assess and manage natural and man-made extreme-event risk. Through its ISO Claims Services, Inc. (iiX unit) and Intellicorp subsidiaries, ISO provides motor vehicle reports and criminal-records information and through its AscendantOne unit delivers policy-management and rating solutions. In the United States and around the world, ISO serves insurers, reinsurers, agents, brokers, self-insureds, risk managers, insurance regulators and other government agencies.
Mike Gannon (AIR)